The hottest industry has different views on the ch

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The industry has different views on the changes in the future market of glass

in 2015, the rate of capacity withdrawal of the entire glass industry accelerated, especially after the collapse of the "China Resources" giant, as a private enterprise, the market competition was more full. After the "profitable" operation in the second half of the year, the cash flow of the enterprise can still be maintained. In the recent survey of the glass market in Shandong, Hebei and central China, futures also clearly felt that under the "low inventory" state, the life of glass enterprises is not very difficult. But when it comes to the changes in the future market, people in the industry have different views

since July this year, glass has become the "dominant" among building materials. On the one hand, the reason behind it is that the industry is dominated by private enterprises, and the capital problem is not as serious as expected; On the other hand, although 70% of the demand for glass comes from real estate, there are still some breathing opportunities because the demand for glass for real estate lags behind that of rebar

Wuhan Changli: Wuhan is mainly tempered and hollow, and the processing products are single. The reason why it is difficult to form an industrial park to make full use of the advantageous area of composite materials is due to historical reasons. Because it is formed naturally, it is almost impossible to concentrate artificially at present. Hubei's own float line is not centralized, and there is a lack of unified original film supply - glass enterprise model. Sha TA said, "we need those highly specialized materials to keep pace with our progress. The model of the river deep processing industrial park is highly market-oriented, with high capital utilization and efficiency, which is difficult to replicate.

environmental protection will become the driving force for capacity reduction. At present, the phased inventory is small, but it does not mean that it will continue. According to the law, glass sells well from November to December every year (for about 15 consecutive years) It was popular before the year. However, the point load extension, elastic modulus, elongation, maximum value, minimum value, average value, net energy and turn back energy of the stripping range have not seen good signs this year. In particular, the former name of MTS displacement sensor in the United States is temposonics. The real estate market situation this year is not optimistic, and the demand will definitely decline in 2016. In the future, there may not be much change in the capacity of central China: replacement and normal cold repair

Jinjing Technology: although after entering December, the market situation in January is not very optimistic due to the short atmosphere of the whole industrial products and the arrival of the off-season of the industry. However, based on the factors of reduced supply and cost, glass enterprises believe that the business situation may improve in 2016

Jingzhou Yijun: on the whole, the downward trend of the whole year cannot be changed. The rule that the second half of the year is stronger than the first half of the year has not been broken. Until now, the market trend is good. But now it is December, and the off-season is gradually coming, so the days from the end of December to the spring festival may not be easy. In the long run, the price is not very optimistic

Jurun building materials: at present, enterprises in northern China have begun to reduce prices, and Shahe will adjust prices according to its own inventory more frequently. The glass price in December is difficult to hold, and forced price reduction is inevitable. For some glass enterprises that have no pressure on capital and have good confidence in the market, they may persist for a longer time

Changjiang Futures: the demand for glass belongs to the later stage of construction and decoration, which has a greater relationship with completion and sales; De stocking of real estate - reducing investment and increasing sales, glass will be stronger than screw thread and iron ore; Improved housing demand and improved decoration, Lido glass. In terms of production capacity: the glass inventory is in good condition, and the production capacity exit steps are smooth (China Resources, etc.); Environmental protection: the glass industry pays more attention to environmental protection, and the steel industry pays more attention to demand

in the later stage, the completion of the project will greatly support the real estate, and the developer must install glass before selling the house. Second hand housing transactions will also cause glass demand (decoration). The variety characteristics determine the falling space, so I feel that the market is not so pessimistic

Mayer Futures: Glass inventory is better than expected; The supply side in Central China has not changed much, and the cold repair in Hebei and Shandong has changed greatly, but the Shahe government in Hebei will maintain the stability of the production capacity in progress. In the future, there is little scope and space for capacity reduction. The demand side of real estate is pessimistic, and the market is expected to be about 750 yuan/ton

Cinda Futures: the future market mainly depends on cost profit and capacity changes (new supply). At present, the demand is expected to decline. How much is the decline, and whether the decline is uniform or accelerated? At present, it is still difficult to grasp, and it needs to be updated according to the real estate data. The supply is easy to grasp, the profits of Shahe and central China are OK, and the possibility of cold repair and resumption of production is relatively large, but Shandong, Hebei and central China are not willing to ignite, and the overall market may fluctuate in the range. It is expected that the low point of the 05 contract is about -150 yuan/ton at the current disk price. At present, the decline of the contract is not large, and the return to the spot is better

global glass () Department

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