Current situation and future development direction

2022-09-22
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The current situation and future development direction of China's Polyethylene Industry

through continuous development in recent years, China's polyethylene industry has achieved an annual production capacity of 10.82 million units so far, but what is worth enterprises' attention is: 1. The growth rate of automobile production and sales, which has the largest weight in the total industrial volume, is picking up; 2. The cumulative order volume of key enterprises in the machinery industry has rebounded. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, Fushun Petrochemical, Wuhan ethylene, Sichuan refining and chemical, Daqing Petrochemical and other units are still put into operation. By the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period, the polyethylene production capacity will reach 16.67 million tons. According to the data of 2011, the domestic production of polyethylene is 10.152 million tons, and the apparent demand is 17.2727 million tons. It can be seen that there is still a gap of more than 7 million tons of polyethylene in China, which has to rely on imports. Therefore, imported products occupy an important proportion of China's polyethylene market with their relatively high performance and cost advantages. However, with the expansion of domestic production capacity and the diversification of olefin raw materials during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the self-sufficiency rate of polyethylene in China will be significantly increased and the degree of external dependence will gradually decrease

in terms of demand, as the main consumption field of polyethylene, plastic film is mostly used in terminal consumption and transportation. Its demand growth has a great relationship with the development of the overall domestic economic situation. It basically maintains a growth slightly higher than the domestic GDP. Its growth momentum is stable and there is demand rigidity. From the statistics of flexible packaging film output, it has increased at an average rate of 13% since 2006, which also confirms the steady growth of plastic film. Another important consumption area of polyethylene is plastic pipe, and its output is also increasing with the acceleration of urbanization and the implementation of municipal pipeline construction projects. In the next few years, urban water supply and drainage, gas pipelines, and municipal plastic pipelines such as urban underground power and communication sheathed pipelines will continue to be the focus of development in recent years

problems existing in the polyethylene industry

in the process of steady development of the polyethylene industry, the problems existing in the industry itself should not be underestimated. China is a country with "less oil, less gas and rich coal", but naphtha to olefin is the traditional main production method of olefin products in China, which is bound to cause raw material and cost pressure for polyethylene in China, and the commencement of cracking unit will be limited under the condition of high oil price. Secondly, the R & D capacity of China's petrochemical enterprises is limited, and their products are mostly concentrated in the level of general-purpose materials, but they are insufficient in high-end special materials, which have to rely on imports. Moreover, at present, petrochemical enterprises mostly adopt the sales strategy of pricing or listing first and delaying settlement. For the mode of delaying settlement, because the cost is not locked, traders cannot give full play to their flexibility, and have to follow the guidance price of petrochemical to determine the selling price. In addition, the production capacity and industrial distribution are also uneven. At present, they are mainly distributed in North China, East China and South China. Of course, this is related to China's regional economic development and convenient transportation. However, the uncoordinated development leads to the oversaturation of the markets in the three regions, which is not in line with the national strategy to vigorously promote the development of the central and western regions

at the same time, downstream plastic products factories are also facing many problems, such as many small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry, low overall equipment level, backward production technology, unreasonable product structure that can meet the use requirements of the industry, insufficient scientific and technological investment, weak innovation ability, low degree of product intensification, unbalanced development of industry regions, disorderly market competition, weak ability to resist risks, etc. In addition to the problems existing in the above-mentioned enterprises, the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is also facing more prominent problems, such as financing difficulties, rising labor costs, rapid rise in raw material prices and so on. The difficulty of production and operation has increased, and the external environment for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises still needs to be improved

in the 12th Five Year Plan, the diversification of olefin raw materials is proposed, and the development plan of coal to olefin and shale gas is formulated. Although this will play a significant role in changing China's energy structure, careful analysis will not change the traditional position of naphtha to olefins

diversification of olefin raw materials: coal and shale gas

coal to olefin refers to the technology of synthesizing methanol from coal and then producing olefins from methanol. The huge demand for olefins, the price advantage of coal and the shortage of oil resources make the coal to olefin project highly competitive in the market. It is one of the important ways to realize the energy strategy of replacing oil with coal and ensure national energy security. It is understood that nearly 20 coal to olefin projects are planned to be put into construction in the next few years, but coal chemical industry is a resource intensive, technology intensive and capital intensive large-scale industry. The devices must be built in the origin of raw materials and use a lot of water resources. At present, the technology is still immature. At the same time, during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the national energy conservation and emission reduction target decreased by 17% compared with 2010, and the environmental pollution of coal to olefins from coal mining to production was quite serious, and the national access threshold was also gradually raised. The energy tax reform also showed the urgency of industrial upgrading and transformation of the petrochemical industry. On the whole, whether coal to olefins can impact and replace the development of polyethylene industry needs further consideration and observation

in March 2012, the Ministry of land and Resources announced in the "12th Five Year Plan for shale gas" that China's recoverable shale gas resources were 25 trillion cubic meters. Although it was slightly less than the data published by the EIA before, China's shale gas reserves still ranked first in the world. China is rich in shale gas resources, and its technical foundation and commercialization conditions are reliable and stable. Once the policies are in place, China will develop a shale gas industry with Chinese characteristics after learning from the experience of shale gas development in the United States and combining domestic resources and various conditions, which is expected to become a new industrial growth point

due to the very low permeability of shale gas, the recovery factor is 10%-20%, so the development technology requirements are high. The Ministry of land and resources requires that the first is to do a solid job in resource evaluation and find out the background of China's shale gas resources; Second, strengthen scientific research, form shale gas exploration and development technology suitable for China's geological conditions, and realize independent production and manufacturing of major shale gas equipment; Third, formulate shale gas industrial policies, clarify the industry access threshold and standards, and form an orderly competitive shale gas development pattern; Fourth, increase policy support to promote the rapid development of shale gas industry. In the planning, we should clarify the division of labor among departments, form a joint force of work, and implement the planning objectives and tasks

changes in the consumption structure of polyethylene in the future

the improvement of living standards makes people have higher requirements for the functions and diversification of packaging materials, such as fresh-keeping film, gas and light barrier film, selective permeation film, antibacterial film and printing film. In the future, the application fields of PE for the film industry will be more refined

although the area of cultivated land in China has been decreasing for many years, the red line of 1.8 billion mu is insurmountable. With the development of agricultural science and technology, the demand for medium and high-end agricultural film is gradually increasing, and the demand for high-performance, thin and multifunctional agricultural film is growing rapidly. However, at present, agricultural film production enterprises are small-scale, geographically dispersed, and there are few high-end production enterprises. The standardization of agricultural film market in the later stage is imminent. In the future, agricultural film production will develop towards centralization, and the production and application development of high-end agricultural film will also put forward new requirements for PE technology innovation

pipes are mainly used for infrastructure construction. From the current situation of PE pipe enterprises, there are common problems in the industry, such as similar products, slow development of new products, and mainly relying on imports of raw materials. The production process of the enterprise shows that the process of realizing one-time injection molding of hollow parts containing embedded parts needs to further strengthen research and development, segment the market, and expand the application field. Only in this way can we reach a higher level in product application, so as to obtain more benefits. Although there are some problems in the overall pipe industry, the requirements of China's 12th Five Year Plan for accelerating rural transformation, rural urbanization, construction of low rent housing and affordable housing will still increase the market demand for pipe materials to a certain extent, and the market prospect of pipe materials in the later stage is still bright

the development of cable industry is closely related to the development of China's industrial economy, especially the development of information industry. With the acceleration of power construction, especially the construction of UHV projects, the demand for wire and cable materials will increase; Secondly, China's consumer electronics and microelectronics industry will still develop rapidly; Thirdly, China's 3G industry is rising, and the construction of broadband network will be accelerated, and the cable industry has a bright future

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